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Northern Ireland Exporters up, but Revenues Down, Monthly UK Exporter Monitor July 2022
Monthly UK Exporter Monitor, July 2022
According to the latest UK Exporter Monitor by Coriolis Technologies and The Institute of Export & International Trade (IOE&IT), Northern Ireland (NI) exporter numbers increased more than any UK nation in the past month. However, these same exporters fared worse than their counterparts in other UK nations over July with revenues dropping by nearly 7% and employment by 4%.
Over the last year, according to the rate of change, NI’s exporters have suffered less than exporters in other nations. Although NI exporter activity has faltered from June to July particularly in revenue and employment, over the course of the year their overall momentum has outperformed all other UK nations in both number of exporters and employment. This suggests that despite the current headwinds from supply chain shortages and uncertainties around the NI protocol, they remain more resilient.
The total number of UK businesses exporting increased by 1% but revenues decreased by 2%.
Total exporter revenues across the UK fell by another 2% since last month, an overall loss of £58.46m. Northern Ireland’s revenues fell by 7% (£3.5m), followed by a loss of 4% in Wales (£1.6m), a decrease of 2% in Scotland (£4.2m), and a loss of 1% in England (£49m).
As outlined in our Q2 UK Exporter Monitor release last month, this activity sits against a backdrop of lower overall volumes of exports. An increase in the cost of imports against a decline in volumes is putting pressure on what consumers have to pay and adding to the cost living crisis
Coriolis Technologies Chief Executive, Dr Rebecca Harding said:
“UK exporters continue to face difficult conditions. Within this we are seeing regional variations and despite facing additional uncertainties around the NI Protocol over the past twelve months Northern Ireland’s exporters have suffered less than their UK counterparts.
Challenges remain for all exporters and as a result we expect future Exporter Monitors to show a further decrease in the number of UK exporters.”
Institute of Export & International Trade director general, Mr. Marco Forgione said:
“Our latest Exporter Monitor suggests that Northern Ireland’s businesses are remaining resilient in the face of adversity, as exporter numbers continue rise. However, the decline in revenue is concerning. Our members are reporting that because of the global logistics problems it is more difficult to diversify their supply chains, something we are addressing through education and training.
“In partnership with SERC we recently opened an office in Bangor, Northern Ireland, and are already actively helping NI Businesses to grow their international trade.”
Download the full Report
Methodology:
- Method:
Coriolis Technologies has matched UK exporter data from Customs and Excise sources with Bill of Lading data and large-scale publicly available datasets. UK HMRC data covers the names and addresses of all UK exporters who send products through customs and excise. These names were matched to Bureau van Djik FAME data to establsh turnover and employment levels. To establish the numbers of service sector companies with export revenues, Coriolis took those businesses in the FAME database with international turnover to collect sector and employment as well as turnover information. The sector distribution of exporters in goods and services was then applied to the sample of companies which did not have turnover or employment data to scale the whole dataset to establish counts, turnover and employment for the UK as a whole. Companies were taken from an HMRC sample going back to 2017 and any duplicates with international turnover data from FAME data removed. - The forecasts are based on a statistical “General Additive” modelling framework which decomposes each time series (each exporter count group) into a couple of main components:
- trend
- seasonality – effect of calendar month or season
- changepoints – moments where the trend shifts
- special calendar events
- These effects are smoothed, added together and extrapolated into the future to create forecasted values for each exporter group separately. The model is optimized to explain as much variability in the time series with as simple model as possible.
- The estimated forecasting error is within 1.7% of the actual value, back-tested on the actual forecasting performance over the past 2 years for the aggregate forecasts and for the forecasts by size and UK nation
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