Sizzling out?

Nothing is quite so intrinsically British as a plate of Bangers and Mash. It’s little surprise then, that there has been outrage in the UK’s popular press as the Great British Sausage in Northern Ireland has fallen victim to the dispute over the so-called “Northern Ireland Protocol” that prevents a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland post Brexit. 

In its simplest terms, the Protocol requires border checks on trade goods between the UK and the rest of the EU. However, the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 commits the UK and the EU to ensuring that there is no return to a hard border on the island of Ireland. To comply with the post-Brexit rules, Northern Ireland needs to comply with EU customs and internal market law. There don’t need to be checks between the North and the South, but there do need to be checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland as a result. 

EU food safety rules state that only frozen meat can enter the single market. Hence sausages, unless they are frozen cannot go from Great Britain to Northern Ireland post Brexit. 

So has the UK jumped out of the frying pan into the fire? 

The UK is the world’s largest importer of sausages, largely from the EU 27, and Germany is the world’s largest exporter. In fact, the UK runs a trade deficit in sausages with the whole world worth $668m a third of this, $242m, is with Germany. When we grab our hot dogs at football matches, we would do well to remember this. 

The Wurst Thing is:

In value terms, the UK imports 1.1bn more sausages than it exports and more generally, although the value of the import of meat into the UK has increased by 1.3% annually over the last decade, over the last five years meat imports have declined annually in value terms at a rate of 2.5%. 

This does not mean that we are eating less sausage, however, simply that the we are paying less: the volume we have imported has gone up by 1.6% over the last decade, and this as increased at an annualised rate more quickly than over the previous five years at a rate of 1.9%. 

Over the last 3 years, imports of sausages from Germany alone have increased at an annualised rate of nearly 9% a year.Quite apart from what this says about UK consumers’ consumption of unsustainable meat products, the fact remains that the UK is in a relatively weak negotiating position when it comes to sausages. The EU has proved determined to maintain the Northern Ireland Protocol and not breach its terms. This means that, unless there are compromises on either side,the dispute is likely to be resolved in the EU’s favour.However, the UK consumer can rest assured that it will still be able to consume European sausages – although we might expect the price to rise as the issue will take time to resolve.

UK imports 1.1bn more sausages than it exports and more generally, although the value of the import of meat into the UK has increased by 1.3% annually.

This does not mean that we are eating less sausage, however, simply that the we are paying less: the volume we have imported has gone up by 1.6% over the last decade, and this as increased at an annualised rate more quickly than over the previous five years at a rate of 1.9%.

Es ist Mir alles Wurst 

At this point it’s important to know that it isn’t really about imports. Ireland is the UK’s largest export destination for sausages. The UK exports nearly eight times more to the US compared to its second largest destination – Spain. Sausage exports are just 0.01% of everything the UK exports. 

From a UK perspective, this is all about the national pride and the iconic British sausage. 

However, Germany’s sausage exports to Ireland have been growing at a rate of 4% annually since 2017 and the invocation of Article 50. In contrast. The UK’s have fallen back by 13.5% with the biggest drop in 2020. 

The phrase “es ist mir alles Wurst” is a phrase used by Germans to say that they really don’t care35.That is increasingly the problem for the UK – that while something really matters for “Global Britain”, it’s just so much sausage for the EU. 

Germany’s sausage exports to Ireland have been growing at a rate of 4% annually since 2017 and the invocation of Article 50. In contrast. The UK’s have fallen back by 13.5% with the biggest drop in 2020.